Chief Executive Officer's statement
Our results for 2023 are below the expectations we set ourselves at the beginning of the year.
I am encouraged, however, at the progress we have continued to make in transforming the business with decisive action to bring in new leadership in North America School Bus and the UK & Germany; focus on pricing and delivery of our restructuring programs.
Ignacio Garat, CEO
Overview
2023 was a challenging year for Mobico Group. Profitability was affected by significant cost inflation (especially wage costs) and significantly reduced Covid subsidies. Structural issues in Germany (labour scarcity and energy price volatility), reduced expectations around the profitability of the UK private hire business, lower than expected growth in UK Bus passenger numbers, and higher driver recruitment costs in North America School Bus have also created a drag to our recovery in profitability. Decisive action has however been taken on pricing and restructuring which is expected to provide significant future benefits. This alongside good top line growth will help drive our recovery.
Mobico Group Revenue grew 12.2% on a reported basis and 10.9% on a constant currency basis. This reflects: (i) strong underlying growth in those businesses where revenue is driven by passenger demand and trip volumes; and (ii) continued recovery in North America School Bus through pricing and route recovery.
Adjusted Operating Profit decreased 14.5% and Group Adjusted Operating Margin decreased to 5.4% (FY 22: 7.0%), as the benefits of volume growth (+£88m), pricing improvements (+£114m) and the in-year impact of our Accelerate 1.0 restructuring initiative (+£15m) were not sufficient to offset:
- the impact of cost increases (£130m) of which approximately 55% was driver wage inflation, and 30% fuel and insurance costs,
- the lagged benefit from price rises in UK Bus and North America School Bus,
- a reduction in Covid subsidies of £105m (see strategic review section for more detail),
- the impact of lower expectations for energy subsidy recovery, higher costs, and the revised indices from the German Federal Statistical Office on profitability of our German rail contracts
Decisive action has been taken across the Group with the successful Accelerate program: Accelerate 1.0 delivered £15m in year savings (at least £30m on an annualised basis) and we have now launched Accelerate 2.0 (with a target of at least £20m annualised). Moreover, specific additional actions have been taken to i) recover cost increases in German Rail through ongoing contract renegotiation, ii) drive a recovery to profitability in National Express Transport Solutions (NXTS), and iii) further improve driver recruitment and training processes in North America School Bus.
Balance Sheet, debt maturity and interest costs
The Group’s covenant gearing ratio at 31 December 2023 was 3.0x, increased from 2.8x last year-end compared to a covenant test gearing limit of less than 3.5x. Free Cash Flow of £163.7m was slightly ahead of prior year (FY 22: £160.5m).
Dividend
On 12 October, the Board announced the suspension of the 2023 final dividend when it became clear that covenant gearing would not decrease in the year and in the light of the weaker than expected macro-economic environment and trading performance. The Board will continue to monitor business performance and prospects and the associated pace of reduction in covenant gearing and will reinstate the dividend when it considers that sufficient progress is being made, targeting a 2x coverage ratio (EPS to DPS) once reinstated.
Strategic commentary
2023 has been a year in which important underlying progress has been made in the context of an evolving market, where Mobico has:
- Adapted to the reality of a post-pandemic world and addressing notable external headwinds;
- Acted decisively to adjust the business model to be ‘fit-forthe- future’: addressing new patterns of demand, evolving requirements of the cost base, changing methods of delivery, and to capture new opportunities; and
- Positioned to capture future growth opportunities
Outlook
Based on current market conditions Adjusted Operating Profit for FY 24 is expected to be within the range of £185m to £205m. Similarly to FY 23, we expect a greater bias to the second half of the year, given the phasing of cost reduction programmes and the timing of price increases.
